MyFirstDoubleStart from zero

You are not supposed to know any of this yet.

Nobody is born knowing what a share is. 10 short pieces, in order. Each one is one idea and a question to check it landed.

None of this tells you what to buy. It is here so that when you decide, you know what you are deciding.

What any of this is

  1. 01

    A share is a slice of a company

    Own a share and you own a tiny piece of a real business.

    Companies need money to grow. One way to get it is to sell small slices of themselves to anyone who wants one.

    Buy a slice and a tiny piece of that company is yours. Its shops. Its factories. Its profits.

    If the company does well, your slice becomes worth more. If it does badly, it becomes worth less. That is the whole idea.

    Share
    One slice of a company. Also called a stock.

    You own one share in a company that has a terrible year. What happens to your share?

  2. 02

    A price is just what someone will pay today

    There is no true price. There is only the last price two people agreed on.

    A share does not have a correct price hidden somewhere. It has the price someone paid a second ago.

    More buyers than sellers, and the price rises. Everyone heading for the exit at once, and it drops.

    News, rumours and plain mood all feed into it. That is why nobody can tell you tomorrow’s price. Anyone who says they can is guessing confidently.

    Someone on the internet says a price will definitely rise next month. What do they actually have?

  3. 03

    A fund is a basket of companies

    One click can buy you a slice of hundreds of companies at once.

    Buying one company is a bet on one company. If it goes wrong, it goes very wrong.

    A fund is a basket holding many companies at the same time. Buy one slice of the basket and you own a little of everything inside it.

    The baskets in this game are called ETFs. SPY, for example, holds the five hundred biggest companies in America. One decision, five hundred companies.

    Fund
    A basket holding many companies at once.
    ETF
    A basket you can buy and sell as easily as a single share.

    Why is buying a basket usually less nerve-racking than buying one company?

  4. 04

    Doing nothing is a decision

    Sitting in cash is a bet that waiting beats taking part.

    You never have to put the money anywhere. Leaving it as cash is allowed.

    But it is not neutral, and it gets scored like everything else.

    In 2022 almost everything fell, and cash quietly beat the market. In 2019 almost everything rose, and cash missed all of it. Same choice, opposite results.

    Market in 2022−19.4%
    Market in 2019+28.9%

    Real annual returns, not examples.

    You hold everything in cash for a year and the market rises a lot. How did you do?

What markets actually do

  1. 05

    Falling is normal, not a mistake

    Markets drop regularly. It is the price of being in them at all.

    It is easy to think a fall means something has gone wrong. Falls are simply part of how this works.

    Look at four years from the same decade. Two of them were bad. Both were followed by more years.

    The people who came out worst were mostly not the ones who were there for the falls. They were the ones who sold during them and bought back after the recovery.

    Market 2018−4.4%
    Market 2019+28.9%
    Market 2022−19.4%
    Market 2023+24.2%

    Real annual returns, not examples.

    The market falls hard. What does that fact alone tell you about next year?

  2. 06

    Why spreading out works

    Things do not all move together, and that is what saves you.

    In 2008 a crisis started in banks and dragged nearly everything down with it. The banks themselves fell furthest.

    But not everything moved the same way. Gold and long government bonds actually rose that year while shares collapsed.

    Someone holding a bit of each did not escape the year. They did survive it, which is the point.

    Bond
    A loan to a government or company that pays you interest.
    Banks−56.7%
    Shares−38.3%
    Gold+4.9%
    Long bonds+28.3%

    Real annual returns, not examples.

    What does spreading your money out actually protect you from?

  3. 07

    The safe thing is not always safe

    In 2022 the thing everyone treats as the safe option fell harder than shares.

    Long government bonds are the classic calm choice. When shares get scary, that is where people go.

    In 2022 they fell further than shares did. The steady option was the worst place to be.

    This is not a reason to avoid bonds. It is a reason to be suspicious of anything described as obvious.

    Long bonds−31.2%
    Shares−19.4%
    Energy+64.2%

    Real annual returns, not examples.

    Everyone agrees something is the safe choice this year. What should you do?

  4. 08

    The plain basket is hard to beat

    SPY does nothing clever and still beats most people who try hard.

    SPY holds the biggest five hundred companies and then sits there. No skill, no timing, no opinion.

    To beat it you have to be right about something the entire market got wrong. That is rarer than it sounds.

    This is why your decade is measured against it. Beating the boring option is the actual test.

    SPY 2019+28.9%
    SPY 2021+26.9%
    SPY 2023+24.2%

    Real annual returns, not examples.

    You made money this year. Did you do well?

How to think about it

  1. 09

    Right and lucky look identical afterwards

    The number cannot tell you which one you were. Only your reasons can.

    Two people buy the same thing on the same day. It rises. One had worked out why it should. The other liked the name.

    At the end of the year they have exactly the same result, and the market cannot tell you which was which.

    Only one of them will be right again on purpose. That is why you write your reason down before you find out.

    Your call went up and the reason you gave turned out to be wrong. What was it?

  2. 10

    The most useful sentence there is

    “I am wrong if ______.” Fill in the blank before you commit.

    Anyone can say why they think something. Almost nobody says what would prove them wrong.

    Naming it in advance does two things. It forces you to check whether you have a real reason at all. And it tells you when to change your mind, instead of leaving that to how you feel.

    This is the one habit here worth taking with you into the rest of your life. It works on far more than money.

    What is the point of writing down what would prove you wrong?

That is the whole of it.

You now know more about how this works than most adults do. The rest you only learn by deciding something and finding out.

Start week one